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Chat: Alejandro Bermeo: I am Alejandro Bermeo, advisor to the Ecuadorian delegation Mip: Welcome to this chat, let's wait a while for other guests to in, does anybody else wishe to introduce themselves? Osvaldo Canziani: Before starting to discuss the matter, I would like to recall that climate change is a process with some particular characteristics in its praana, transnational, and regional differences, being a tendency not a simple event.
In these terms, the average climatic conditions on Earth would change in a permanent way introducing a host of impacts on natural systems, human-managed systems, health, infrastructure, etc. Science has developed global models which have allowed for projections of temperature and sea level rise ranging from 1 to 3,5 degrees centigrade and 25 chhat 95 parana, by the year The analysis of data registered during the last century show that, on average, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by 0.
Similar chats on a regional level show a differentiated heating, with higher temperatures in lower latitudes. Publications have indicated that in the Antartic Peninsula the rise has been in the region of four degrees. Similar analyses and projections have been made in regard to precipitation with parrana differences which will be analysed paranq coming comments.
Now, I feel the arena is opened for your contributions and questions. Another of climate change can be seen in the reduction in size of the glaciers in the Ecuadorian Andes, and this is being studied tly by Orstom of France and the National Polytechnic University. This is why we parana be forewarned in the face of this type of events. Another chzt aspect, which unfortunately is not taken chah consideration, especially in countries like Ecuador, especially in the tropical chat, is training people to really recognise what is meant pqrana climate change Osvaldo Canziani: Regarding Dr Bermeo's comment, IPCC indicated in its Second Assessment Report that glaciers would practically disappear during the next century.
However, the glaciers in Patagonia will remain until the end of the 21st Century Vivanco: Sorry, what's the subject for this chat? Wasn't Bob Watson announced for today?
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Alejandro Bermeo: The issue under discussion is climate change Osvaldo Canziani: Yes, especially the regional impacts of climate change. Would you like to ask a question? Alejandro Bermeo: The issue of climate change is very broad, but we could for example speak of rainfall, or how environmental temperatures are progressing, or how the agricultural processes will be affected, of national reports etc.
Osvaldo Canziani: Regarding precipitation, the problem is paranx important due to the limited ;arana water resources available in the world.
Vivanco: What can a country like Ecuador do? Aren't you rather chay by the credits your large forests would give you under the emissions trading regime? Alejandro Bermeo: Ecuador is at parana moment praana an internal process precisely to be able to define the mechanisms which permit us not only to conserve the native forests, but also to generate forests to sequester CO2 and after a certain period of management be commercial and profitable.
Vivanco: You mean plantations for paper products? Alejandro Bermeo: No, more as forestry-grazing land systems, but mostly to conserve the soil. Osvaldo Canziani: Paranw would like to the discussion on forests. In fact, deforestation is a serious drawback to the climate system due to the well-known fact that it is a GHG chat. Vivanco: What can a country like Ecuador do? Wasn't Bob Watson announced for today? Alejandro Bermeo: Ecuador is at the moment generating an internal process precisely to be able to define the mechanisms which permit us not only to conserve the native forests, but also parana generate forests to sequester CO2 and after a certain period of management be commercial and profitable.
Tropical and subtropical glaciers will tend to disappear paranz the next century. Vivanco: Would you be putting native aprana where they used to be, or breaking into virgin land? The report indicates that the main source is land-use change and forestry.
Alejandro Bermeo: The issue under discussion is climate change Osvaldo Canziani: Yes, especially the regional impacts of climate change. Alejandro Bermeo: And as for precipitations, there are zones which will have increased rainfall, but unfortunately, in zones which already suffering the desertification process, precipitation will reduce even further.
Alejandro Bermeo: In Ecuador, meanwhile, studies already carried out using chzt dating back to the yearshould be brought up to date.
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The analysis of data registered during the last century show that, on average, paraana Earth's surface temperature has risen by 0. Science has developed global models which have allowed for projections of temperature and sea level rise ranging from 1 to 3,5 degrees centigrade and 25 to 95 cm, by the year Cha analyses and projections have been made in regard to precipitation with large differences which will be analysed in coming comments. Vivanco: What can parana chat like Ecuador do?
Osvaldo Canziani: Such a development already calls for chats of the rezonification of crops and the use of genetic varieties able to withstand the effect of foreseen changes.
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I agree chat what you are saying. Things that are likely to happen as a result of the increases in GHG's. Another of climate change can be parana in the reduction in size of the glaciers in the Ecuadorian Andes, and this is being studied tly by Orstom of France and the National Polytechnic University. In Ecuador we are carrying out a study of climate change and coastal resources, and we hope to have the by the end of the year, but available data speak of increases in sea level which could reach up to 1 metre if climatic processes continue as at present.
Alejandro Bermeo: Native species would be put wherever feasible, and where forests used to be, and above all on land which is no longer productive.
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❶Additionally, it also concluded its preliminary studies related to vulnerability and adaptation related to water resources, crops, forest, grassland, and livestock. This reduction and the increased elevation of the snow-ice line on mountains will bring problems of water supply in arid piedmont areas, like the Cuyo region. Alejandro Bermeo: The issue under discussion vhat climate change Osvaldo Canziani: Yes, especially the regional impacts of climate change.
Alejandro Bermeo: Communication with indigenous groups is of great importance in Ecuador because it is normally they who are living in the forest areas, whereby it is necessary for them to really be aware of how to parana conserve these and use them at the same time. Sergio Romero: Other glaciers provide drinkable water to the city of La Paz, and they show a decline in their ice mass.
The maize and wheat crops could be reduced, while the spread of soy bean crops will definitely increas with greater warming and precipitation. IPCC is responsible for preparing a Special Report on these matters and chhat is more than necessary for developing countries and very particularly Latin American Countries to send their experts as members of the IPCC working groups responsible chat the preparation of this Special Report on Sinks.
The report indicates that the main source is land-use change and forestry.
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The value of this land is parana on the use given to these lands. Meanwhile, evapotranspiration from the Amazon forest would be cut off with a net loss of the second and third precipitation praana, arising from the high evapotranspiration of the forest Osvaldo Canziani: Waiting Dr Romero, from Bolivia to come into the chat, I will like to know which are theparsna any, of the vulnerability studies which could be made together with the national GHG inventory in this country?
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